Economic Notes for the Week of April 2nd

The final estimate for the Q4 2011 real GDP was released last week, and stood unchanged at +3.0%.  Personal consumption was flat, goods spending was revised upward a bit, and services consumption was revised down slightly—nothing too significant overall.  More importantly, gross domestic income was revised up to +5.2%, which is the same level realized in Q3.  Looking at the GDI’s rate of growth can be somewhat helpful from the standpoint of the economy’s momentum.  While it’s interesting and informative to see the economy’s path of growth in the last several quarters, this is now old news and doesn’t matter much anymore—three months into the next quarter.  It is really just a reflection on how right or wrong the initial estimates were and how adjustments might be made that could affect the current quarter’s growth pace.  Preliminary estimates place 2012 Q1 real GDP at anywhere from +2.0% to +3.0%, although predictions differ for the year as a whole.  Several firms just raised their 2012 projections for the U.S. and world by a quarter percent or so. Read more